Short answer: sometimes. The honest version takes a few minutes, because two things changed in the last three years and most of what you'll read online was written before both of them.
The two changes that matter. PG&E pays far less for exported solar than it used to, and as of January 1, 2026 there is no federal tax credit for a homeowner who buys a system. Any article that quotes a 30% credit or assumes you get retail value for exports is out of date. This page is written for how things actually work now.
Under the old rules, power you sent to the grid was worth roughly what power you bought from it. A kilowatt-hour out cancelled a kilowatt-hour in. Your roof was, in effect, a battery that PG&E maintained for free.
NEM 3 — PG&E calls it the Solar Billing Plan — broke that one-to-one trade. Exports are now credited at an avoided-cost rate that changes by month, hour, and day of week. In practice most East Bay homeowners see something in the range of 5 to 8 cents per kilowatt-hour for what they export, while they still pay somewhere north of 35 cents for what they import. Your own numbers depend on your rate plan, so check a recent bill rather than trusting any range, mine included.
That gap is the whole story. Sending power to the grid at midday and buying it back at 7pm is now a losing trade. It is not a small loss, either — you are selling at a fraction of what you rebuy at.
People still ask me about grandfathering. That window is closed. The last systems that could reach permission to operate on the old terms had to get there in April 2026. If you are installing now, you are on NEM 3. Anyone telling you otherwise is either behind or selling something.
The federal residential credit under Section 25D — the 30% everyone built their math around — ended for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025. There was no phase-down and no transition. If you buy a system with cash or a loan today, the federal government contributes nothing.
This is the single biggest change to residential solar economics in a decade, and it is still missing from most of what you'll find online. It does not mean solar stopped working. It means a system that used to pay for itself in eight years might now take eleven, and the honest comparison has to start there rather than from a number that no longer exists.
One wrinkle worth knowing: the separate commercial credit that third-party owners claim is still available for a while. That is why leases and power purchase agreements look relatively better than they did — not because they got cheaper, but because the alternative lost its subsidy. I walk through that tradeoff in lease, loan, or buy.
After NEM 3 the question stops being "how much can my roof produce" and becomes "how much of what my roof produces can I use myself." Self-consumption is where the value is. Which means solar works best now for homes that:
I will tell people no, and I'd rather do it before anyone signs anything:
California's property tax exclusion for solar is scheduled to sunset on January 1, 2027. Under it, adding solar doesn't reassess your home. Systems finished before that date keep the exclusion; ones completed after may be assessed as new construction unless the legislature extends it, which it has done before and may do again.
With permitting and utility approval, most projects run 30 to 45 days, so a system starting much past this fall is cutting it close. I mention it because it's a genuine date, not a sales tactic — and because it's worth confirming the current status before you plan around it.
Pull twelve months of usage from your PG&E account — not your bill total, the actual kilowatt-hours, and when you use them. That data answers the question better than any calculator, because it shows how much of your usage falls after sunset. If most of it does, you're a battery candidate. If you're a daytime household with a big roof, you may need less than you think.
That's the first thing I look at on a visit, and I'll tell you what it says whether or not it points toward a sale.
A free 45-minute visit, a look at your bill and your roof, and a straight answer about whether solar makes sense for your home.
Or call or text (510) 926-8332